The Economic Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Emerging Markets
نویسنده
چکیده
Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a greater significance in 2000-2009 than in the full sample of 19742009. We also find that emerging economies are impacted by changes in oil specific demand but unaffected by changes in aggregate demand for industrial commodities.
منابع مشابه
Macroeconomic, International Linkage and Effects of External Shocks in Southeast Asian Emerging Economies
This study is an attempt to examine the effects of external shocks on macroeconomic variables in selective small open emerging economies in Southeast Asia. A quarterly Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, including 33 countries, was used throughout 1979–2013. The empirical results showed that the target countries were affected by external shocks, especially the shocks in the U.S, Euro are...
متن کاملThe Effect of Oil Shocks on the Performance of Banks
Crude oil is the most important input in production, and its price shocks are remarkable because of its significant impact on the real economy. Oil is important in economic activity and financial markets. The shock of oil prices may also affect the performance of banks, with adverse effects on macroeconomics such as consumption and investment. The purpose of this study was to investigate the...
متن کاملAn Estimation of The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Price Shocks on Iran-Russian Trade: Evidence from a Gravity- VEC Approach
Abstract This article is an empirical attempt to explore the relationship between sanctions (financial and non-financial), oil price shocks and Iran-Russian bilateral trade flows over the period 1991–2014. In contrast to earlier studies in which a gravity model has been estimated through a panel data approach, in this paper the authors apply a gravity model for only two countries and do the es...
متن کاملOil Price Shocks and Russia’s Economic Growth: The Impacts and Policies for Overcoming Them
Considering Russia’s rich and vast oil resources, this country is one of the world’s greatest producers and exporters of this nonrenewable energy resource, and like other petrostates, receives a major part of its national income in this way. The dependence of Russia’s budget on oil has raised the significance of world oil price fluctuations for this country. Since 1970s, the global oil market h...
متن کاملMacroeconomic Shocks and Malaysian Tourism Industry: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model
Abstract his study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the macroeconomic shocks on Malaysian tourism industry, especially how the economy dynamically responds to oil price shocks, exchange rates, changes in price level, exports, economic growth and tourism income during the study time period from January 2001 to December 2012. The results indicate that oil...
متن کامل